Disclaimer: The findings of the following analysis are the sole opinions of the writer and should not be considered investment advice
Over the last five months, Avalanche (AVAX) has rejected higher peaks while its price took a plunge toward the $52-mark. Since then, the buyers have provoked a strong recovery, one that flipped the long-term trendline resistance to support (white, dashed).
As the price closed above the median of the pitchfork (red), possible retracements could find a cushion near the $79-$80 zone. At press time, AVAX was trading at $79.27, up by 4.23% in the last 24 hours.
AVAX 4-hour Chart
AVAX lost more than 64% (from its ATH) of its value and plummeted toward its 14-week low on 22 January. Since then, it has recovered its previous losses and toppled its long-term trendline resistance (now support).
The digital currency saw an exponential growth of 57.8% in the latter half of March. While the altcoin grew in a rising wedge, it saw an expected breakout from the $101-mark. As a result, this downslide entailed a bearish crossover of the 20/50 EMA with the 200 EMA.
Now, with the short-term trend in control of the bears, possible revival rallies would find a hurdle at the 20 EMA (red), followed by the upper line of the Pitchfork in the $79-$81-range. Following the same, AVAX would likely aim to retest the $77-mark.
Rationale
Source: TradingView, AVAX/USDT
Over the last eight days, the RSI equilibrium has shunned all recovery attempts while flashing a bearish bias. A close above this level would be critical for the buyers to break above the upper trendline of the Pitchfork.
The CMF grew but struggled to topple the -0.09-level resistance. Its current state gave a selling edge and affirmed the slackening perception of investors for the crypto.
Conclusion
Considering the bearish crossover on its EMA and the weak readings on its near-term technicals, the $80-$81 zone could pose problems in the recovery phase. Pullbacks from this zone would likely be supported by the median of the Pitchfork.
Besides, a broader sentiment analysis with on-chain developments needs to be taken into consideration to make a profitable move.
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