Bitcoin (BTC) On-Chain Analysis: BTC Breaks Down Below Key Metric

Be[in]Crypto takes a look at on-chain indicators for Bitcoin (BTC). More specifically, the Realized Price-to-Liveliness Ratio.

What is the realized BTC price?

The realized price is an on-chain indicator that measures the price of BTC at the time it last moved. As a result, it devalues lost coins and those that have not moved in a long period of time.  

The actual BTC price has fallen below the realized one on only two occasions since 2018. It did so in July 2018 and March 2020 (black circles). Currently, it is at $23,600, roughly $20,000 below the actual price.
Therefore, the total BTC in existence last moved at an average price of $24,450.

Going by previous history, once the BTC price approaches the realized price line, it usually deviates below it for a certain period of time. This usually marks the bottom. In 2018, the movement was very gradual, while in 2022 it was sharp.

So, it is possible that another decrease below $23,600 will occur before the trend reverses.

Realized Price-to-Liveliness Ratio

The Realized Price-to-Liveliness Ratio (RPLR) is a metric that compares the realized price to liveliness. Liveliness is an on-chain indicator that is used to determine if market participants are hodling or spending.

Historically, the BTC price has moved above RPLR (orange) several times. Once BTC moves decisively above this line, the first ensuing decisive breakdown marks the end of the bull cycle. This was the case in both 2018 and 2018 (black circles). 

In May 2022, BTC fell below this line with a sharp breakdown (red circle). The line is currently at $39,000, while the BTC price is at $30,000.

Historically, once the price has broken down below this ratio, it has also decreased below the realized price line, which is currently at $23,600

For Be[in]Crypto’s latest bitcoin (BTC) analysis, click here