Bitcoin (BTC) Price Risks Persist as Demand Wanes

A rather boring Bitcoin price action has left the market hoping for some swift moves, but BTC could make participants wait a bit more before any good news pops up. 

The Bitcoin price action has been a rather sad affair for investors, being stuck below the $20,000 mark for most of October so far. A tight supply band around the $19,000 mark has governed BTC price as bulls and bears both fail to move prices in either direction. 

BTC was trading at $19,268 at the time of press, noting a 23.72% rise in daily trade volumes to kick off the week. The global crypto market cap moved more or less in tandem with the Bitcoin price today, rising ever so slightly to $964 billion.

BTC price in consolidation 

Even though the market hopes for recovery after a long bearish spell, Bitcoin’s technicals do not show rallying signals just yet. 

On the long-term chart, the BTC price is testing the lower late-2020 levels that it recovered from following the pandemic-led downfall. One major difference between these two time periods is the significantly higher trading volumes this time around.

With the BTC price at such low levels, on-chain metrics suggest that short-term sentiment continued to be bearish as the short-term SOPR (break-even) value was lower than 1. 

As seen in the SOPR vs aSOPR comparison, all participants who bought after December 2020 are now at a loss. It will be difficult for long-term holder SOPR values to regain a positive trend anytime soon.

Also, in the short term, the SOPR values present a bearish trend as the BTC price broke below the on-chain resistance of $19,500. 

Low market demand 

While retail demand was relatively stable in the spot market, it’s undeniable that the perpetual futures market also significantly affected BTC’s short-term price movement. Thus, in times of confusion, it’s beneficial to assess the sentiment of the futures market. 

Notably, the BTC funding rates are treading in the negative territory once again as the price dropped from the $22,000 level and started to consolidate at the $19,000 support. 

Interestingly, funding rate values are still significantly low compared to the 2019-2021 period, indicating a massive lack of demand and activity in the futures market.

All in all, owing to the low demand and high macroeconomic uncertainty, the BTC price could be stuck in this rangebound trajectory for a bit longer before any major moves are seen.