Source : zycrypto.com
As the current bearish trends in the crypto market attract closer attention from most analysts and traders, the major practical question is what the lowest point of this large correction may be.
Bloomberg analysts believe that $30,000 appears to be the most probable price level under the present market conditions. The justification of these expectations refers to the inability of the BTC price to remain above the previous support level at the range of $37,000-$38,000.
John Roque of 22V Research in a note to Bloomberg says “In the globe’s latest maelstrom — U.S./Russia/Ukraine — Bitcoin, the asset purported to be the answer to every question, has quietly weakened and is notably underperforming its arch-enemy, gold,”.
Roque predicts Bitcoin may slip below $30,000, a level it hasn’t seen since July, as traders increasingly favor gold, potentially pushing the precious metal to an all-time high.
Therefore, the bearish tendencies should continue to prevail in the following days, even if some correction or stabilization occurs in the short run. The historical evaluation of Bitcoin’s price dynamics confirms that the price level of $27,000-$30,000 may be viewed as the major support in terms of the premier cryptocurrency’s dynamics within the past two years.
For this reason, a further price decline to $30,000 is perceived as being almost inevitable by most market pundits. However, the subsequent price changes can follow one of these scenarios: either the formation of a new bullish cycle from the $30,000 level or the uncontrolled price decline after the break of the major support level. The likelihood of the second scenario prevents many crypto investors from opening their long positions at the moment.
Nexo co-founder Antoni Trenchev says: “Bitcoin’s inability to hold $40,000 amid heightened Ukraine tensions means $30,000 is back in play… “Geopolitics has, for now, replaced inflation as the primary driver of both traditional and crypto markets.”
Another significant aspect of the crypto market plunge is the decline in the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio. Over the years, Bitcoin tended to be more profitable than gold. However, the recent shifts indicate that gold has become more effective as a store of value as it has appreciated in comparison with the US dollar, while Bitcoin continues losing its position. The current Bitcoin-to-gold ratio is at its lowest since mid-2021.
Katie Stockton of Fairlead Strategies says Bitcoin which is already trading below a long-term support level of around $37,400, would face its next key technical resistance at $27,200.
It appears many risk-averse individuals have preferred shifting their savings to gold-linked assets and abstain from opening long BTC positions during periods of market uncertainty.
At the same time, Bitcoin still possesses a unique potential for long-term growth and appreciation as it is more dynamic and suitable for the digital world than gold. After the end of the contemporary correction, the new bullish cycle may transcend the previous one. The most challenging task for investors has always been correctly determining the local bottom for boarding the BTC train and other cryptocurrencies at the most attractive prices, thus maximizing their long-term returns.