Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Creator Buying the Dip, Is the Price Model Still Valid?

Popular Bitcoin chart analyst and investor ‘PlanB’ continues to buy the dip highlighting how many times the asset has been proclaimed ‘dead.’

On Oct. 3, the analyst told his 1.8 million Twitter followers that he was still buying BTC with his most recent purchase being around the $20,000 level.

His first purchase was in 2015 when BTC had fallen to around $400, and then again during the 2018 bear market when it fell to around $4,000. The asset is currently trading at equally weak levels, 72% down from its all-time high.

BTC has been declared ‘dead’ on those three occasions and as many as 463 times since its inception according to the 99Bitcoins obituaries page.

My first bitcoin investment was in 2015 at ~$400 (yellow circle). Most people said bitcoin was dead.

My 2nd investment was in 2018 at ~$4000 when I published the S2F model. Most people said bitcoin was dead.

My 3rd investment is now at ~$20,000. Most people say bitcoin is dead. pic.twitter.com/oUWppoJgxo

— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) October 2, 2022

Is the S2F model still valid?

‘PlanB’ has had his share of criticism (and still does) when the price prediction model appeared to be invalidated this year. BTC prices did not surge to the $100,000 average cycle high as predicted in late 2021, or the $135,000 end-of-year close as he predicted at the time.

However, the model does appear to be intact when considering the upper and lower boundaries or the range of deviation from the predicted price for the current time in the cycle which also appears to be lengthening.

With September’s close of $19,425, BTC is trading approximately 75% below its predicted price for this cycle. It was also observed that Bitcoin has never closed a monthly candle below its previous all-time high in its history.

It does make a valid buying point for those with the conviction that the S2F is still valid and the bearish downtrend will slowly start to reverse in 2023 sometime in the period leading up to the next halving.

The asset is also trading below a number of longer-term technical indicators such as the 200-week moving average at $23,470 and the realized price which is at $21,253 according to Woo Charts.

Bitcoin dips below $19,000 again

Major macroeconomic concerns continue to fuel the bears in both traditional finance and crypto markets. BTC took a sharp dip below $19,000 during the Monday morning trading session but has since recovered to $19,194 at the time of press according to CoinGecko.

The asset remains in tight consolidation where it has been for the past three weeks, failing to make any progress above $20,000 yet bouncing off support at the mid-$18,000 level several times.