Over the last few months, IOTA’s movement has unequivocally backed the bearish narrative. An extended correction from September 2021 highs identified the end of a bull cycle. The current streak of bear runs has led the alt to take a plunge toward its multi-month baseline at the $0.389-level.
Giving due importance to the liquidity range, the altcoin still needed to topple the 23.6% hurdle to reignite any chances of a strong bull run. At press time, IOTA traded at $0.4372, up by 1.81% in the last 24 hours.
IOTA Daily Chart
IOTA saw a substantial breakdown from the upper trendline of its long-term down-channel (white). After being able to barely hover above the 20 EMA (red) and the 50 EMA (cyan), the sellers pulled the alt back into its southbound journey while the market-wide liquidations heightened.
As a result, the altcoin lost over 60% of its value over the last 40 days. With the buyers showing some determination to defend the 15-month baseline at the $0.38-level, IOTA could withstand the recent sell-offs.
The $0.44-mark has assumed an important region to determine the quantum of a potential reversal. A sustained close below this mark would likely lead to a retest of the $0.38 baseline. On the flip side, any close above this mark would lead the alt into a low liquidity range and thus increase the chances of further recovery.
Rationale
Source: TradingView, IOTA/USDT
The Relative Strength Index has undeniably painted a bearish picture while it struggled to break the shackles of its oversold lows. Any pullbacks at the 34-mark would affirm the existence of a bearish divergence and could delay the revival phase.
The Aroon up (yellow) has been sweeping the zero-mark for the last five days. A continued movement in the days to come would foster a tight phase on the charts. Post this, a likely revival from this mark would expose the alt to short-term recovery.
Conclusion
The gap between the 20 EMA and 50 EMA has overstretched. Considering this reading coupled with oversold readings on its RSI, IOTA could stall the current selling spree. The $0.44-mark would be a determining level for further recoveries or a squeeze phase with a baseline at the $0.38-level.
Finally, investors/traders must keep a close watch on Bitcoin’s movement affecting the overall perception of the market.
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