At press time, Bitcoin didn’t seem like it had plans to leave behind its $39k identity any time soon and most of the top 20 cryptos were in the red. However, 28 and 29 April are crucial days for the crypto market. Why so? As of press time, there were 748.60 Bitcoin call options and 1,027.40 put options set to expire on 29 April.
Bitcoin options can exert their own influence over the market by helping define certain support and resistance levels.
Choices, decisions, options. . .
At press time, the maximum pain price was around $40,000. This comes with huge implications for investors who are waiting for the king coin to break through the resistance and cross the $40k psychological price.
However, high put open interest was concentrated around $38,000, $34,000, and even $30,000. This might help set new support for the asset, with $38,000 looking quite likely.
On the other hand, there was a high call open interest at the $40k mark and especially around $42,000. While many traders were betting on $50,000, this seems less likely as high call volumes at a particular strike price could serve as resistance. Here, $40k to $42k looks likely.
Source: CoinOptionsTrack
Weighing up my options
Even though Bitcoin was changing hands at $39,755.96 at press time, the coin rallied by 2.08% in the past 24 hours. That could be one reason why weighted sentiment was in positive territory.
However, at 0.367, sentiments were far from euphoric spikes – which is good news for those who don’t want to see more steep falls.
Source: Santiment
What’s more, a report by Arcane Research noted that the volume of Bitcoin supply which hasn’t moved in a year or more has reached a high of 64%. This suggested that investors are stacking sats.
Adopt AND shop
But what happens to Bitcoin adoption, if BTC is turning scarce instead of being used for payment? However, Jurrien Timmer, the Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments, proposed this might not be the case. Using S-shaped curves to compare it to other markets, Timmer estimated that Bitcoin growth and adoption might help it evolve, rather than the scarcity of the asset.
Bitcoin will likely evolve from the early go-go days to a more mature two-way market, driven by network growth and the pace of adoption, less by scarcity (which is written in stone and mostly baked in). So let’s do a deep-dive on historical adoption curves. 🧵 pic.twitter.com/BJUjNmBLPJ
— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) April 26, 2022
Timmer’s analysis comes as the BBC reported that the Central African Republic had become the second country in the world to accept BTC as legal tender.
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