XRP’s road back to $1: A fever dream or a distant possibility

The uncertainty of the crypto market is very often reflected in the assets that people choose to invest in, and XRP seems to have become a beacon of the same. Since last year, the crypto market has been through not one or two but four different bullish phases. And XRP failed to make sustainable growth in all of them.

XRP wins and loses

Regardless of the rise during the rallies, the price falls that followed them invalidated all and any growth, and consequently, XRP has reached an even lower price point today than it was one year ago.

Trading at $0.6644, the coin is moving further away from its all-time high of $1.9 as well as from $1, which is considered to be a critical as well as psychological level, and not once since 2022 began has XRP actually even grazed it.

Now with the second quarter of the year underway, it looks like it might actually be a long while before the same happens.

A lot of cues for a favorable price action happen to come from the investors themselves. Chains with active investors are prone to more stable rises, but with XRP, that has sadly not been the case.

Transaction stats that spiked around November and again in February slipped to 1.2 million again this month. This is because the number of investors that have been participating actively has reduced. At the time of writing, less than 34k addresses are active on-chain.

XRP active adresses | Source: Santiment – AMBCrypto

And in all fairness, they aren’t at fault here either since there is no particular incentive for them to be active. The reason behind this is that most of their transactions since November have been in losses, which makes it apparent that unless there is now a prospect of profits, they wouldn’t be interested in transacting with XRP.

XRP transactions in losses | Source: Santiment – AMBCrypto

The chances of that happening on top of that are much lower since, aside from the bearishness on the charts, the price indicators are also not displaying any signs of a rise.

To add to that, the lack of volatility reduces the 50% probability of a price swing, further confirming that $1 is a fever dream. Thus, despite the wins in the Ripple v SEC case, XRP’s investors continue to lose.

XRP volatility | Source: Coinmetrics – AMBCrypto